Roadmap roadkill

What the heck is AMD up to? The Hammer's been delayed again, and nobody is exactly sure why. Well, we can have a fairly accurate guess -- the delay oddly coincides with the release of Windows XP 64-bit. But that isn't all that's keeping things back. . .

AMD just can't get the Hammer out the door. The chip's been delayed again, and an early 2003 launch doesn't look like it'll eventuate. Originally scheduled for a 'first-quarter' release almost a year and a half ago, the x86-64 CPU has whacked into a variety of fluffy animals on the road to completion.

First in the fender mid-2001 was the introduction of SOI (Silicon-on-insulator) technology. AMD had always planned the Hammer for SOI, but was somewhat undecided until it was sure it could implement the tech. This pushed release back six months, made a few disgruntled, but was generally accepted as part and parcel of forging 64-bit chips.

Over the bonnet and into the windshield was something no one quite saw, and was squished like an overweight possum. Some thought it was a lack of compatibility with chipset and motherboard designs; low-yields; or problems with SOI, but really, it had smeared across the driver's side door and was flat on the road before we could confirm its identity.

So, what's succumbed to the treads of fate this time? Well, it is, in fact, low-yield production due to SOI technicalities: AMD fears that it won't be able to produce enough Hammers to meet supply demands. So, the release has been pushed back until production can be guaranteed. With only one fab facility pumping out processors, it's probably a smart move on the company's part to hold things back. AMD is also almost certainly waiting for Microsoft to release its Windows XP 64-bit OS, which has also been held back. Both should make an appearance around September.

In the end, it still means we'll have been waiting from early 2001, to mid-2003 for the chip.

On SOI, AMD has had troubles getting the darn tech to work like it should. Now most likely an integral part of the processors design (and probably the reason why the chip will debut at speeds of 1.6GHz and 1.8GHz instead of 2.5GHz), production needs to be kicked back to perfect the design.

Left in the wake of all this carnage is the recent setback with the 90nm manufacturing process. The tools and equipment is ready and waiting, but confidence in the technology isn't. It'll be up to the market to absorb the transition from 130nm to 90nm, so if things bite arse, fabs and chip makers will be hit hardest. So, 2005 looks to be the year of the nanometre, and until then, everyone's confident that the 130nm process can be squeezed some more.

Except Intel of course. They'll be proceeding with 90nm -- helps to have your own dedicated facilities.

Maybe the extra time before the technology flood will let AMD modify the Hammer core to make it that much faster, or more stable. Or maybe we'll be waiting two more years for x86-64.